Will there be a Pot video and DVD? Probably.  Will it contain live footage?  Perhaps, but I suspect if Tool had anything of reasonable quality we would have seen it by now.

Will there be a website update? Inevitably I’d say to. I’ve considered this a likely possibility since a smashed computer was posted on Toolband once.  People may find it hard to get excited about a new website, but if they could get something the quality of nin.com, then that would be somewhat exciting.

As BellJH points out the other possibility is a Tool Movie.  I’d be a little surprised personally, though the idea sounds great.  Perhaps a little too big.

Then again, with Tool, we can always expect the unexpected.  As to what the Big Thing is, I’d suggest you guys are being optimistic expecting Junior to do a reveal in the comments here…

If that comment from Blair is relating to the ‘Big Thing’, then I’m pretty sure that rules out a website update and a video for ‘The Pot’.
Also we know it is not the Summer tour anymore, which leaves us with either: 
1) some kind of official movie about the band 
or 
2) some kind of full-length live CD (in interviews they always seem to be very opposed to a live CD). 
Or possibly something else that we haven’t thought about yet (perhaps a ‘Best of’ album? haha). Why can’t Blair just mention what it could be, instead of building up all this ‘suspense’! 

I don’t think I denied all of that stuff.
This “Big Thing” business has been brewing and being bantered about for almost a year and a half, now. I started having my doubts nearly a year ago, and stopped waiting for it some time after that, to the point where I’d nearly forgotten about it, or at least stopped thinking about it, until just recently when Blair mentioned it at one of those fantastic Monday night jams at the Baked Potato, or maybe it was in the back hallway of the Knitting Factory in between the areas where the ceiling is dripping a mystery liquid into garbage cans (and possibly being collected for some unknown purpose or maybe just so the floor doesn’t get wet).
If I recall correctly, this all started when Blair hinted that something would be happening on the 17th of January 2008, and once it started to get bounced around the internets it became dubbed a “Big Thing” (not initially by Blair, mind you). He has started to call it that (somewhat sarcastically, I think), but he was not the originator of the term. Either way, I think he’s still referring to the same thing that was originally scheduled for 17 January 2008, but maybe he’s moved on.

I agree the website update really does not mean anything to many people. You suggested that the big thing may be a new member, I dont see that happening. The main reason being is that I doubt they will ever have a new member. Plus there is no reason to announce a new member for a 3 week tour. Also if they did have a new member the only way it would happen is if they had a new album. Im keeping my fingers crossed for a new album because every other industry is collapsing and they are aware of it and may want to release one more thing before everything completely collapses.

Could it possibly be the new album? I mean, they didn’t say when the big thing was coming, did they? Maybe a single from the new album? What if there is a new member of the band? (Devo or Adam Monroe come to mind) Very unlikely, but that would be huge news for us Tool fans. If junior isn’t lying about the things he says it’s not, then there aren’t many things that could be considered BIG things. A website re-design is worthless to me, since I rarely use the site, and I’m sure there are a lot of others like me in that regard, so I doubt that is it. Maybe a book of Tool’s artwork? Not many things come to mind other than those that junior denied.

What hype? Junior and Blair have confirmed something big is coming. Blair mentioned it last year. Lets summarize what has been ruled out.

1. It is not the summer tour
2. It is not a website update
3. It is not a tool movie
4. It is not the pot video
5. It is not a live show

Feel free to confirm or deny list above Junior. (Please do)

quite perplexing…. what will it be :O